Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $2.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6264.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.0pp at 2d ago (to 0¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -4.2pp → 0¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 0¢
- 2d ago · -4.4pp → 0¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 12, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending DecemberTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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