Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Probability
15¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$841.10
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournamentLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 15¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournamentLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2636.8h
- 03:11SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+8.0pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.0pp at 10:00 (to 15¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 02:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 00:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 22:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 20:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 19:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 14:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
- 12:00 · +8.0pp → 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 16¢+3.0
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 45¢+44.3
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $30.86
- 8¢+1.5
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 3¢+0.9
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 38¢+22.9
Will Nicolai Højgaard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 34¢+21.5
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 5¢+2.1
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-22.4
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
Sports · Vol $5.2M
- 100¢+51.4
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)
Sports · Vol $1.9M
- 100¢+56.5
Sabres vs. Canadiens
Sports · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-66.5
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B
Sports · Vol $885.2K
- 1¢-0.1
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $846.2K
- 100¢+48.4
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sports · Vol $832.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament. If a listed player withdraws, is disqualified, does not participate or is eliminated from contention for the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by September 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship?"?
As of Wed, 13 May 2026 03:11:37 GMT, YES is priced at 15% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +8.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 31, 2026 (2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $370.01. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $841.10. Spread between best bid and best ask: 18.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
