Will Charli XCX release a new original album by July 31?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$5.38
Liquidity
$194.50
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2305h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 69.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2304.6h
- 23:25SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2305h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.5pp at 3d ago (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 42¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 42¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 42¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Charli XCX officially releases a new album between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (69.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.