Will Ciryl Gane become UFC champion in 2026?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+12.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$65.94
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 12pp over 24h
Now 53¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 62.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.0h
- 17:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:59PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 53¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 53¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 50¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 52¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumufc.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (62.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.