Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$25.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 845h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 844.6h
- 19:24SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 845h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.8pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.8pp at 2d ago (to 1¢).
Show all 4 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -9.8pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -8.3pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
10- 7¢-50.0pp
Pistons vs. Magic
AI · Vol $4.0M
- 43¢0.0pp
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5
AI · Vol $405.1K
- 4¢-46.5pp
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
AI · Vol $322.5K
- 8¢-4.6pp
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $311.4K
- 1¢+0.4pp
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?
AI · Vol $168.5K
- 92¢+9.0pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $146.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claudeAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowstatus.claude.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.