Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.7pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$220.52
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 4¢; +0.7pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 842.9h
Price movement
-3.4pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -11.5pp at 4d ago (to 6¢).
Show all 44 hour-by-hour ticks
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 4¢
- 20:00 · -4.7pp → 3¢
- 19:00 · -4.7pp → 3¢
- 17:00 · -4.7pp → 3¢
- 16:00 · -4.6pp → 3¢
- 15:00 · -4.6pp → 3¢
- 13:00 · -4.2pp → 4¢
- 12:00 · -4.1pp → 4¢
- 10:00 · -4.0pp → 4¢
- 09:00 · -4.0pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 18¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -9.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -8.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -8.0pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -8.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -8.0pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -8.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -9.0pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -9.5pp → 8¢
- 4d ago · -11.5pp → 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
7Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claudeTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.