SportsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?

Probability

45¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.2K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nba.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (87.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 17:00May 1, 2026, 16:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 45¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 87.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 703.7h

    LOW
  • 16:19Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at 3d ago (to 33¢).

Show top 8 of 33 hourly moves
  • 12:00 · +15.5pp → 48¢
  • 11:00 · +15.5pp → 48¢
  • 08:00 · +16.0pp → 48¢
  • 06:00 · +15.5pp → 48¢
  • 04:00 · +15.5pp → 48¢
  • 3d ago · -17.0pp → 33¢
  • 4d ago · -16.0pp → 34¢
  • 4d ago · -16.0pp → 34¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team advances to the NBA Finals of the 2026 NBA Playoffs. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the 2026 NBA Finals (e.g. they are eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the results of the 2026 Playoffs Conference Finals have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA (https://www.nba.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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