SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 1, 2027
Creator

Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Probability

0¢

1h

-4.3pp

24h

-12.3pp

24h Vol

$202.32

Liquidity

$43.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 16, 2026, 15:00 UTCMay 23, 2026, 14:24 UTC
updated 14:24:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-23T14-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 12pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -4.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 12.3pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 9681.6h

    LOW
  • 14:24Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 12.3pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-12.3pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -16.9pp at May 20, 06:00 UTC (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 51 hourly moves
  • May 21, 06:00 UTC · -16.4pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 22:00 UTC · -16.4pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 14:00 UTC · -16.4pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 10:00 UTC · -16.9pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 09:00 UTC · -16.9pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 08:00 UTC · -16.9pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 06:00 UTC · -16.9pp → 0¢
  • May 20, 04:00 UTC · -16.4pp → 0¢
updated 14:24:53 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:24:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNBA: 2027 Champion
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named as the champion of NBA for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NBA: however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?"?

As of Sat, 23 May 2026 14:24:53 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -12.3pp in the last 24 hours, -4.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2027 (2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$202.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $210.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $43.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets
Open on Polymarket