SportsExpires Jun 20, 2026
Creator

Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals?

Probability

97¢

1h

+3.4pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$567.01

Liquidity

$1.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 20, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Wide spread (6.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
97¢
Jun 2, 2026, 16:00 UTCJun 6, 2026, 03:37 UTC
updated 03:37:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-06T03-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 97¢; +3.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

oracle review
Trust transition

The market is in an oracle/review state where proposal, dispute, and final settlement evidence matter more than the displayed price.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: UMA pending

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? State: UMA pending — oracle review Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? State: oracle review Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 20, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 332.4h

    LOW
  • 03:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    UMA status is disputed and the spread is extremely wide. Verify the resolution source before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 97¢.

Biggest hourly move: +51.9pp at 08:00 (to 98¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 16:00 · +48.6pp → 99¢
  • 14:00 · +49.3pp → 98¢
  • 12:00 · +49.3pp → 99¢
  • 11:00 · +50.2pp → 99¢
  • 09:00 · +50.1pp → 99¢
  • 08:00 · +51.9pp → 98¢
  • 06:00 · +49.9pp → 98¢
  • 05:00 · +48.9pp → 98¢
updated 03:37:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 03:37:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNBA Playoffs: Who will attend the NBA Finals?
Category · Sports

Market Description

The 2026 NBA Finals are scheduled for June 3, 2026 through June 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual attends any game of the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the NBA Finals are canceled or postponed beyond July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Cancellation or postponement of an individual game will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "No" unless all other NBA Finals games have concluded without a qualifying attendance. Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. This market may not resolve to "No" until the final game of the NBA Finals has concluded. The primary resolution source will be the official communication channels of the NBA and/or participating teams; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals?"?

As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 03:37:12 GMT, YES is priced at 97% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +3.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 20, 2026 (2026-06-20T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$567.01 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $741.86. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

18 wallets
Open on Polymarket