What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 00:52:59 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.9pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 17, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $61.52. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $9.3K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-deaaron-fox-win-the-2026-nba-finals-mvp renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-deaaron-fox-win-the-2026-nba-finals-mvp/markdown.

SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 17, 2026

Creator

Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Probability

0¢

+0.0pp

24h

-6.9pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$9.3K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 17, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.9pp 7d

Apr 29, 2026, 01:00May 6, 2026, 00:52

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T00-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 17, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1007.1h
LOW

Price movement

-6.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.5pp at 3d ago (to 5¢).

Show 5 hourly moves

00:00 · -4.9pp → 0¢
22:00 · -4.9pp → 0¢
20:00 · -5.0pp → 0¢
19:00 · -5.0pp → 0¢
3d ago · -12.5pp → 5¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 NBA Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket