PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?

Probability

27¢

1h

-17.2pp

24h

-15.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$54.64

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
27¢
May 11, 2026, 21:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 19:00 UTC
updated 19:30:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T19-30Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 15pp over 24h

    Now 27¢; -17.2pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 39.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5428.5h

    LOW
  • 19:30Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-15.0pp over the last 24h, now 27¢.

Biggest hourly move: +36.4pp at May 15, 13:00 UTC (to 43¢).

Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
  • May 15, 13:00 UTC · +36.4pp → 43¢
  • May 15, 11:00 UTC · +35.4pp → 42¢
  • May 15, 07:00 UTC · +35.1pp → 42¢
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · +35.1pp → 42¢
  • May 15, 02:00 UTC · +35.2pp → 42¢
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · +35.5pp → 42¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · +35.0pp → 41¢
  • May 14, 20:00 UTC · +35.3pp → 41¢
updated 19:30:43 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 19:30:43 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will Trump announce as next Attorney General?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Attorney General will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Attorney General by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential nomination

Reason

Party nomination markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 19:30:43 GMT, YES is priced at 27% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -15.0pp in the last 24 hours, -17.2pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $24.93. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $54.64. Spread between best bid and best ask: 39.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

3 wallets
Open on Polymarket