PoliticsExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026?

Probability

45¢

1h

+4.0pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
video footage
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (54.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
48¢
Jun 2, 2026, 19:00 UTCJun 6, 2026, 13:45 UTC
updated 13:45:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-06T13-45Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 45¢; +4.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 54.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: video footage

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 590.2h

    LOW
  • 13:45Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.

Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at Jun 5, 12:00 UTC (to 42¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • 18:00 · +17.0pp → 40¢
  • 16:00 · +17.0pp → 40¢
  • 15:00 · +17.0pp → 40¢
  • Jun 5, 12:00 UTC · +20.0pp → 42¢
  • Jun 5, 11:00 UTC · +17.5pp → 42¢
  • Jun 5, 09:00 UTC · +18.5pp → 42¢
  • Jun 5, 08:00 UTC · +18.0pp → 41¢
  • Jun 5, 07:00 UTC · +18.0pp → 41¢
updated 13:45:16 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:45:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump dance on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026?"?

As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 13:45:16 GMT, YES is priced at 45% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +4.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $6.41. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 54.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket