PoliticsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026?

Probability

8¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-19.0pp

24h Vol

$334.93

Liquidity

$489.27

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
video footage
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 21:00May 2, 2026, 20:21
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 19pp over 24h

    Now 8¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 675.6h

    LOW
  • 20:21Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-19.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.

Biggest hourly move: -31.5pp at 09:00 (to 10¢).

Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
  • 20:21 · -20.5pp → 8¢
  • 15:00 · -21.0pp → 7¢
  • 13:00 · -22.0pp → 19¢
  • 09:00 · -31.5pp → 10¢
  • 07:00 · -31.0pp → 10¢
  • 06:00 · -31.0pp → 10¢
  • 05:00 · -28.0pp → 13¢
  • 02:00 · -24.0pp → 21¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWill Trump dance on...?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket