Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?

1. 1

   Down 7pp over 24h

   Now 7¢; -8.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 845h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.