OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+0.3pp

24h Vol

$5.5K

Liquidity

$21.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-22.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:36
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 99h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $21.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 99.4h

    LOW
  • 20:36Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 99h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -22.5pp at 3d ago (to 1¢).

Show all 17 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 2d ago · -11.1pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -11.1pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -20.9pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -17.4pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -14.8pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -14.8pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -20.6pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -18.6pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -18.6pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -21.5pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -20.6pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -21.1pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -21.1pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -21.1pp → 1¢
  • 3d ago · -22.5pp → 1¢
  • 3d ago · -21.9pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -21.9pp → 2¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWill Drake release Iceman by...?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket