OtherExpires May 8, 2026

Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-1.6pp

24h Vol

$1.5K

Liquidity

$8.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 294h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $8.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 294.5h

    LOW
  • 17:31Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 294h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.3pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.6pp at 1d ago (to 2¢).

Show all 5 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 21:00 · -3.5pp → 4¢
  • 20:00 · -4.2pp → 4¢
  • 19:00 · -4.0pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · +3.4pp → 5¢
  • 1d ago · -4.6pp → 2¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWill Drake release Iceman by...?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drake officially releases Iceman by the listed date, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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