What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?"?

As of Mon, 04 May 2026 08:06:55 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -31.8pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$29.2K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $29.6K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $5.0K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-drop-dead-olivia-rodrigo-be-the-1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-337 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-drop-dead-olivia-rodrigo-be-the-1-song-on-us-spotify-this-week-337/markdown.

EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 8, 2026

Creator

Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Probability

12¢

-10.8pp

24h

-31.8pp

24h Vol

$29.2K

Liquidity

$5.0K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 8, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the most-streamed song in the U
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 1, 2026, 23:00May 4, 2026, 08:06

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors

01
Price move
Down 32pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -10.8pp in the last hour.
02
Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.8× turnover
$29.2k traded against $5.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
03
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
04
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 8, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the most-streamed song in the U
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 87.9h
LOW
08:06Signal
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
LOW

Price movement

-31.8pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled May 8. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled May 8 by May 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket