Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$1.47
Liquidity
$2.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+12.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 43¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.6h
- 13:24SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:22PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 43¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 45¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released. The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).