Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Probability
78¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$42.00
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.0h
- 16:01SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 78¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 79¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 78¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 85¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 83¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 82¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 83¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 82¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).