Terrible-Ordinary
0x0a6d26d31b28fd5a84c301f8b27296612f3b1d0a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$27.4K
Total PnL
$9.0K
Realised
$24.8K
Win rate
76%
123 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5682 shares @ 66.9¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.2K
$350.66
- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2922 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.9K
$231.14
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
2280 shares @ 72.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.0K
$330.60
- NO
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
1980 shares @ 94.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.9K
$54.12
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
2401 shares @ 70.1¢·now 72.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.7K
$46.12
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1625 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$46.30
- NO
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
1461 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$22.65
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1809 shares @ 80.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.4K
$-36.02
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
1738 shares @ 81.1¢·now 77.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.3K
$-62.16
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
1503 shares @ 70.3¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$1.3K
$280.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$16.11Jul 28, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$17.34Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$324.00Jul 28, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$29.80Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by August 31?$23.29Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$14.56Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$631.10Jul 28, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$64.08Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- MERGEWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$6.10Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- MERGEWill Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$11.52Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$616.93Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- MERGEWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.4KJul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.03Jul 28, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$153.41Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.2KJul 28, 17:33 UTC
- REDEEMTargu Mures: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu AND Games Total: O/U 2.5$349.65Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.79Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$37.08Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.22Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$780.59Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
76% win rate over 123 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
123 closed markets, 76% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $114.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 123 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.