Will Esteban Lepaul be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+5.3pp
24h Vol
$13.46
Liquidity
$183.36
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 61¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 820h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 820.2h
- 19:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 820h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+6.7pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.9pp at 2d ago (to 59¢).
Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -5.4pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · -3.3pp → 58¢
- 2d ago · -7.1pp → 58¢
- 2d ago · -8.1pp → 59¢
- 2d ago · -8.9pp → 59¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 58¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season. If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only goals scored in Ligue 1 matches will count. Goals scored in other competitions (e.g., Coupe de France, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market. If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official statistics from the Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- official statisticsOfficial statisticsextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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