Will Estonia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 484.3h
- 19:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 484h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -16.8pp at 2d ago (to 6¢).
Show all 2 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -16.8pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -16.6pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 6¢-0.7pp
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-1.0pp
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+2.0pp
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 54¢+4.0pp
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $960.39
- 21¢+0.9pp
Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Portugal be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 3¢-0.4pp
Will San Marino be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 36¢0.0pp
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 22¢-27.0pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+22.4pp
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 19¢-38.0pp
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Other · Vol $755.9K
- 100¢0.0pp
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Other · Vol $552.6K
- 48¢+3.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $513.3K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
Other · Vol $476.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.