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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2026

Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?

Probability

16¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$961.02

Probability (last 7 days)

-19.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:56
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 16¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 21.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 16:56Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethena (ENA/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 15:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ENA/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ENA_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ENA/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Binance spot pairExchange priceextracted · high
binance.com
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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