Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?
Probability
28¢
1h
-9.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$91.19
Liquidity
$2.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -9.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 522.5h
- 05:28SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 4d ago (to 22¢).
Show top 8 of 54 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -14.0pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · -14.5pp → 26¢
- 4d ago · -18.0pp → 26¢
- 4d ago · -22.5pp → 26¢
- 4d ago · -24.5pp → 22¢
- 4d ago · -17.0pp → 34¢
- 4d ago · -13.5pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · -17.0pp → 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31?"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 05:28:44 GMT, YES is priced at 28% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, -9.0pp in the last hour, and -18.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$91.19 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
