Charming-Grape
0xac4a1fabdac2438d6afa2a9e8e83845310a0bf1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$88.9K
Total PnL
$-17.6K
Realised
$64.8K
Win rate
46%
107 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
14346 shares @ 82.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.6K
$1.8K
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
12655 shares @ 84.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$11.7K
$1.0K
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
11893 shares @ 92.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$11.4K
$393.78
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
10894 shares @ 93.6¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.1K
$-48.22
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
16653 shares @ 50.3¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$9.1K
$691.88
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
11333 shares @ 70.9¢·now 73.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.4K
$313.31
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
8227 shares @ 94.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.0K
$219.34
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
7828 shares @ 50.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$5.4K
$1.4K
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
19152 shares @ 19.5¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$-794.35
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12014 shares @ 7.3¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$852.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$41.31Jul 25, 05:16 UTC
- MERGEWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$89.70Jul 25, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$32.30Jul 25, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$16.38Jul 25, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$7.54Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$5.63Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$2.24Jul 25, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.22Jul 25, 04:49 UTC
- MERGEWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$24.10Jul 25, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$8.46Jul 25, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$8.44Jul 25, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$10.43Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- MERGEWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$128.10Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$10.92Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$24.50Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$18.80Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- CONVERSION2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner$57.41Jul 25, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$35.59Jul 25, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$6.75Jul 25, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$21.12Jul 25, 04:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 107 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
107 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $33.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 02:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 05:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 107 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.