OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?

Probability

63¢

-0.5pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$806.39

Liquidity

$1.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:29

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 348.5h
LOW
11:30Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 348h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
11:00Price
Probability up 6.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 4.5pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 10.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 10.5pp
to 67¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 9.5pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 8.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 60¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 15.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 13.5pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.0pp
to 60¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 11.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 55¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.5pp
to 60¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 10, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is releasedAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

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Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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