Threadbare-Conception
0x7ee4fe442c5b7fcfbdcad499e3e0de293fdb6832
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$353.72
Realised
$158.86
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
403 shares @ 37.2¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$318.19
$168.19
- NO
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
338 shares @ 74.1¢·now 69.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$234.54
$-15.46
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
179 shares @ 84.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$147.32
$-2.68
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
164 shares @ 73.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$104.38
$-15.62
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
127 shares @ 79.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$96.84
$-3.16
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
228 shares @ 44.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$91.00
$-9.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$86.54
$36.54
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
94 shares @ 85.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$84.24
$4.24
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
76 shares @ 66.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$73.07
$23.07
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
68 shares @ 74.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$66.93
$16.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?$10.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?$10.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?$30.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?$100.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$50.006h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?$75.007h ago
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?$3.007h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?$5.007h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$150.0014h ago
- REDEEMWill Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24?$0.0015h ago
- TRADEBUYWill Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24?$5.001d ago
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$308.861d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?$10.001d ago
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$59.521d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$120.001d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$80.001d ago
- REDEEMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?$0.001d ago
- REDEEMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?$30.911d ago
- REDEEMAnother crypto hack over $100m by December 31?$225.101d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?$20.0010d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $83.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 11d ago
- Last active
- 6h ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.