Threadbare-Conception

• YES

  Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?

  135 shares @ 9.9¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026

  $11.41

  $-1.93

• YES

  Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?

  109 shares @ 11.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026

  $8.75

  $-3.25

• YES

  Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

  5000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $7.50

  $-17.50

• YES

  Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?

  116 shares @ 21.5¢·now 4.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026

  $5.35

  $-19.65

• YES

  Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?

  36 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026

  $1.97

  $0.18

• YES

  Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

  2770 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026

  $0.00

  $-15.00

• YES

  Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

  1065 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026

  $0.00

  $-7.45

• YES

  Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

  825 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026

  $0.00

  $-30.00

• YES

  Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?

  527 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026

  $0.00

  $-10.00

• NO

  Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?

  460 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027

  $0.00

  $-20.00

• TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$26.18May 26, 20:32 UTC
• TRADESELLWill Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?$60.96May 26, 20:32 UTC
• TRADESELLWill Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?$39.16May 26, 20:32 UTC
• TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$75.00May 26, 20:31 UTC
• TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$83.78May 26, 20:31 UTC
• TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$97.47May 26, 20:31 UTC
• TRADESELLWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$103.46May 26, 20:31 UTC
• TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$77.40May 26, 20:30 UTC
• TRADESELLWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$158.23May 26, 20:30 UTC
• TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$132.14May 26, 20:30 UTC
• TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$94.87May 26, 20:30 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$2.21May 23, 21:45 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$6.71May 23, 16:20 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$100.48May 23, 13:49 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?$25.78May 23, 13:49 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?$51.30May 23, 13:49 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$3.55May 22, 14:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$4.43May 22, 14:59 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?$1.79May 21, 19:30 UTC
• TRADEBUYWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$8.87May 21, 12:21 UTC

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