UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026?

Probability

24¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$9.70

Liquidity

$233.36

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released
Link
data.giss.nasa.gov
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-15.5pp 7d
1007550250
25¢
May 28, 2026, 09:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 08:58 UTC
updated 08:58:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T08-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 24¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 31.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

liquidity sensitive

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 615.0h

    LOW
  • 08:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.

Biggest hourly move: +26.0pp at Jun 1, 07:00 UTC (to 40¢).

Show top 8 of 53 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -17.0pp → 23¢
  • Jun 1, 21:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 25¢
  • Jun 1, 07:00 UTC · +26.0pp → 40¢
  • Jun 1, 06:00 UTC · +19.5pp → 40¢
  • Jun 1, 00:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 40¢
  • May 31, 13:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 40¢
  • May 31, 09:00 UTC · +23.5pp → 40¢
  • May 31, 01:00 UTC · +24.0pp → 37¢
updated 08:58:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:58:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:58:22 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -15.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$9.70 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $111.20. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $233.36. Spread between best bid and best ask: 31.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

5 wallets
Open on Polymarket