Second-Domain
0x682dbb961b8b4c4c99d9d56557d5ad68847e4cd6
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-16.0K
Realised
$999.05
Win rate
80%
137 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
1072 shares @ 48.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$905.65
$388.56
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
738 shares @ 74.9¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$690.67
$137.71
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
900 shares @ 40.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$211.50
$-156.50
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?
742 shares @ 29.9¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$115.06
$-107.27
- YES
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
2138 shares @ 22.1¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$75.70
$-397.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?
1704 shares @ 6.7¢·now 2.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$46.87
$-67.02
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 30.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.50
$-175.36
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in July?
2243 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$17.94
$-10.74
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?
1300 shares @ 8.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.65
$-91.44
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?
2231 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.16
$4.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$10.12Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$7.47Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$7.37Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$30.20Jul 29, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$58.97Jul 29, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August?$8.00Jul 29, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?$0.47Jul 29, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?$17.14Jul 29, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July?$17.14Jul 29, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in July?$0.11Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.12Jul 29, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.00Jul 29, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?$1.12Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in July?$0.28Jul 28, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in July?$0.00Jul 28, 22:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 137 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
137 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 137 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.