Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 356.7h
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 357h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
11- 64¢+4.5pp
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
Other · Vol $3.0K
- 5¢+0.9pp
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?
Other · Vol $1.8K
- 16¢+0.5pp
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?
Other · Vol $1.3K
- 14¢-1.0pp
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?
Other · Vol $983.88
- 1¢-1.5pp
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?
Other · Vol $1.5K
- 100¢+74.5pp
Lakers vs. Rockets
Other · Vol $9.2M
- 50¢-5.0pp
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Other · Vol $5.6M
- 0¢-52.4pp
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
Other · Vol $2.7M
- 2¢-1.1pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.2M
- 100¢+58.5pp
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 44¢-4.5pp
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)
Other · Vol $692.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is releasedAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).