Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.2pp
24h
-1.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +0.2pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:14SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 7¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).