Popular-Knowledge
0xdfe57cefa99c8f8817f3ef9e73d1c84a292ee888
Quality score
95/100
Open positions
36
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$13.75
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1000 shares @ 87.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$795.00
$-75.00
- NO
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
200 shares @ 92.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$200.00
$14.10
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
200 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$200.00
$0.70
- YES
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
300 shares @ 16.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$127.50
$79.50
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
115 shares @ 30.8¢·now 68.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$78.00
$42.64
- NO
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
53 shares @ 93.7¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$49.86
$0.66
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
124 shares @ 27.6¢·now 30.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$37.07
$2.96
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.50
$2.50
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
103 shares @ 38.0¢·now 16.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.74
$-22.40
- YES
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
335 shares @ 9.1¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.72
$-18.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$20.002d ago
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$48.008d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.3513d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.2413d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$4.9513d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.9714d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.8315d ago
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$4.8023d ago
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.0027d ago
- TRADEBUYRussian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$86.0431d ago
- TRADEBUYRussian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$3.9631d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.0336d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.0836d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.4036d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.8136d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.2036d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.0336d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.0036d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.2236d ago
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.0236d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 60d ago
- Last active
- 2d ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.