Will Google say "ChatGPT" or "OpenAI" during earnings call?
Probability
82¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+33.5pp
24h Vol
$165.03
Liquidity
$157.73
Probability (last 7 days)
+24.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 34pp over 24h
Now 82¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 80h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 80.4h
- 15:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 80h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 76¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.5pp
to 76¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 77¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 72¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 73¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 72¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 69¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 69¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 72¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 70¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 72¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 72¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 48¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 45¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 49¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 45¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 47¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Google (Alphabet) currently scheduled to take place on April 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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