Blushing-Tweet
0x3a56a469d6457f779f18869f92f23878cc39387c
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$8.97
Win rate
49%
166 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
135 shares @ 61.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$135.00
$52.40
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
99 shares @ 90.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.90
$0.22
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
87 shares @ 72.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$81.39
$18.74
- NO
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
69 shares @ 31.1¢·now 97.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$67.03
$45.56
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
64 shares @ 14.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$64.00
$54.48
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
63 shares @ 33.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$62.48
$41.34
- NO
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?
64 shares @ 55.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$62.48
$26.74
- NO
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
60 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$60.18
$14.45
- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
60 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$60.00
$6.60
- NO
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
60 shares @ 66.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$60.00
$20.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 166 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
166 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 166 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.