Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Probability
79¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+28.5pp
24h Vol
$50.00
Liquidity
$420.10
Probability (last 7 days)
+22.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 28pp over 24h
Now 79¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 39.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.1h
- 16:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:54PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 79¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 79¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 78¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 76¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 72¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 66¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 54¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 59¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's weddingAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.