Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?

1. 1

   Down 9pp over 24h

   Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between April 1 and April 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in April 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.