Will Hong Kong have between 200-210mm of precipitation in May?
Probability
41¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+12.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$32.65
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong ObservatoryLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (78.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 12pp over 24h
Now 41¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 78.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong ObservatoryLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (78.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 665.1h
- 06:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+12.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 06:52 (to 41¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 06:52 · +28.5pp → 41¢
- 05:00 · +26.5pp → 41¢
- 04:00 · +25.0pp → 42¢
- 03:00 · +23.0pp → 40¢
- 01:00 · +28.0pp → 42¢
- 23:00 · +26.5pp → 42¢
- 19:00 · -15.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -12.5pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between May 1 and May 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in May 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.