Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by April 30?
Probability
43¢
1h
+7.0pp
24h
-8.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$657.81
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 43¢; +7.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 56.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6013.6h
- 15:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 38¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 45¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 38¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 37¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 50¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 42¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 43¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 45¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 53¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 55¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 42¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 39¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 upgrade goes live on mainnet by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (56.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).