Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by May 30?
Probability
56¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$5.21
Liquidity
$24.89
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (79.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 56¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 79.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (79.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5865.6h
- 19:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
7- 86¢+15.0
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $3.6M
- 100¢+53.4
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $337.9K
- 18¢-1.0
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Other · Vol $327.2K
- 99¢+48.5
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?
Other · Vol $323.4K
- 100¢+0.1
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $287.0K
- 100¢+48.9
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01?
Other · Vol $270.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 upgrade goes live on mainnet by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.