Unfit-Hardboard
0x7e35a2a8cfd1eb1e69dacd043206db5a787f1a6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$88.3K
Total PnL
$11.5K
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
58%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
14180 shares @ 55.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$9.7K
$1.8K
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
12482 shares @ 49.7¢·now 51.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.5K
$258.59
- YES
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
10505 shares @ 35.2¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.5K
$767.54
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
4598 shares @ 43.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$771.50
- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
3289 shares @ 68.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.6K
$339.87
- YES
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?
2907 shares @ 60.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$458.84
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
2791 shares @ 66.4¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$2.1K
$211.25
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
14281 shares @ 5.1¢·now 13.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.9K
$1.2K
- YES
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
2365 shares @ 38.9¢·now 78.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$1.8K
$924.55
- YES
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
3129 shares @ 51.7¢·now 58.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2026$1.8K
$197.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$4.88Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.06Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$0.04Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$13.66Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.26Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$4.15Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France pass a national budget by December 31?$215.21Jul 28, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?$225.26Jul 28, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.58Jul 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYInsurrection Act invoked by December 31?$78.00Jul 28, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.05Jul 28, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.04Jul 28, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$5.46Jul 28, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.03Jul 28, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$3.00Jul 28, 11:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
80/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
53 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $14.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 05:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.