Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2027?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$9.26
Liquidity
$119.19
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (61.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 41¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 61.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (61.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5105.1h
- 06:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at May 31, 05:00 UTC (to 33¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- 05:00 · -12.0pp → 41¢
- 04:00 · -11.5pp → 41¢
- 03:00 · -13.5pp → 41¢
- May 31, 05:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 33¢
- May 30, 21:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 39¢
- May 30, 15:00 UTC · -14.5pp → 44¢
- May 30, 14:00 UTC · -15.0pp → 40¢
- May 30, 00:00 UTC · -12.5pp → 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 56¢0.0
Will Iceland participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 52¢+2.5
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $320.47
- 49¢-0.5
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 80¢0.0
Will Germany participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 62¢+1.5
Will North Macedonia participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 56¢-1.5
Will Austria participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $0.00
- 30¢-0.5
Will Kazakhstan participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $5.49
- 72¢-0.5
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2027?
Entertainment · Vol $219.61
Market Description
The final list of participating countries for Eurovision 2027 is expected to be officially published by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) at the end of 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country is included in the earliest official list of participants for the Eurovision Song Contest 2027, as announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) or Eurovision by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will solely resolve based on the countries mentioned in the first official announcement; subsequent withdrawals or adjustments will not affect the resolution of this market. If no qualifying list is published by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and Eurovision (e.g., https://eurovision.tv); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
eurovisionReason
Eurovision markets are Entertainment even when the contestant country is also a geopolitics keyword.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Ireland participate in Eurovision 2027?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 06:53:30 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$9.26 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $45.84. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $119.19. Spread between best bid and best ask: 61.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.