Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in May?
Probability
16¢
1h
-33.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$30.00
Liquidity
$261.59
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On BusinessLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 24.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On BusinessLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 08:34SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: -43.0pp at May 31, 08:00 UTC (to 7¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 07:00 · -31.5pp → 7¢
- 21:00 · -32.5pp → 6¢
- 18:00 · -33.0pp → 6¢
- 14:00 · -42.0pp → 7¢
- 13:00 · -42.0pp → 7¢
- 11:00 · -41.0pp → 7¢
- 09:00 · -42.5pp → 7¢
- May 31, 08:00 UTC · -43.0pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for May 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on June 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in May?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:34:25 GMT, YES is priced at 16% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -33.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$30.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $30.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $261.59. Spread between best bid and best ask: 24.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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