Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
65¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$1.4K
Liquidity
$12.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 497.1h
- 06:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 497h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 65¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 65¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 65¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 65¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 65¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 10 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).