PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 9, 2026
Creator

Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

Probability

10¢

1h

-9.8pp

24h

+5.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (18.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.4pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 07:00May 11, 2026, 06:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-11T06-33Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 5pp over 24h

    Now 10¢; -9.8pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 18.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 689.4h

    LOW
  • 06:33Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+5.1pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: -41.2pp at 4d ago (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
  • 05:00 · +17.0pp → 20¢
  • 02:00 · +19.7pp → 23¢
  • 13:00 · +23.7pp → 26¢
  • 1d ago · -25.3pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -29.1pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · +23.6pp → 28¢
  • 4d ago · +23.8pp → 31¢
  • 4d ago · -41.2pp → 4¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSC-01 Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

midterm election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?"?

As of Mon, 11 May 2026 06:33:08 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +5.1pp in the last 24 hours, -9.8pp in the last hour, and -2.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 9, 2026 (2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $892.71. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 18.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket