PoliticsExpires Nov 3, 2026
Creator

Will Janelle Kellman advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?

Probability

37¢

1h

-13.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$27.71

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
sos.ca.gov
Link
sos.ca.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (55.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
34¢
May 15, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 20:23 UTC
updated 20:23:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T20-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 55.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Nov 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4107.6h

    LOW
  • 20:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.

updated 20:23:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 20:23:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the Lieutenant Governor race in California in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

midterm election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Janelle Kellman advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 20:23:35 GMT, YES is priced at 37% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -13.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Nov 3, 2026 (2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $27.71. Spread between best bid and best ask: 55.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket