Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$182.49
Liquidity
$428.05
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $428 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 117.8h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any portion of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present at any meeting or event which is part of this summit and for which officials from both the government of the United States and the government of China are present. If no summit occurs by May 20, this market will resolve to "No". The summit will be considered to have ended once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. No meetings or events which start after this time will be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
summitReason
Question text contains "summit" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?"?
As of Tue, 12 May 2026 02:09:15 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$182.49 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $182.49. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $428.05. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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