Will JD Vance say "NATO" on the Will Cain Show?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$18.85
Liquidity
$13.65
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (80.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 80.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 03Resolution proximity
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 23:08SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolved 23h ago
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
JD Vance is scheduled to appear on the Will Cain Show on April 29, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/WillCainShow/status/2049245211012870401 This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during this appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Vance is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this interview is definitively cancelled by JD Vance or the Will Cain Show, or otherwise is not released by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point. The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 29, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (80.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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