PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026

Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

Probability

69¢

+0.0pp

24h

+5.5pp

24h Vol

$866.36

Liquidity

$17.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+17.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:54

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 69¢; flat in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 394h with open resolution ambiguity.
3
Thin liquidity
Only $17.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 394.1h
LOW
13:54Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 394h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
13:54Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 6.5pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 68¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 5.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 5.0pp
to 66¢
MEDIUM
15:00Price
Probability up 3.5pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 64¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 65¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 61¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 62¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWest Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 12, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket