PoliticsExpires —
Creator

Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?

Probability

4¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-8.0pp

24h Vol

$762.00

Liquidity

$15.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
—
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 23:00May 6, 2026, 03:02
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T03-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 8pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $15.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at 1d ago (to 12¢).

Show top 8 of 27 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -7.0pp → 3¢
  • 01:00 · -6.0pp → 4¢
  • 00:00 · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • 22:00 · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · +6.0pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · +7.5pp → 12¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be arrested before 2027?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

12 wallets
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