Natural-Vacation
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$267.9K
Total PnL
$-10.8K
Realised
$-18.7K
Win rate
66%
127 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
17092 shares @ 83.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.2K
$1.8K
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
14723 shares @ 90.3¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.0K
$661.71
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17000 shares @ 77.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.5K
$379.44
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
9666 shares @ 92.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.1K
$232.30
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
11639 shares @ 76.1¢·now 76.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.9K
$79.44
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9260 shares @ 89.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.5K
$160.20
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
10123 shares @ 68.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.6K
$710.81
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7389 shares @ 84.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.0K
$709.82
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
6643 shares @ 90.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.5K
$428.59
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
5847 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.4K
$27.72
Recent activity
- MERGEMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$277.15Jul 28, 20:09 UTC
- MERGEWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$537.77Jul 28, 20:08 UTC
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$500.00Jul 28, 20:08 UTC
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$945.60Jul 28, 20:08 UTC
- MERGEClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$4.0KJul 28, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$547.80Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$45.65Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$60.00Jul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$50.22Jul 28, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$100.00Jul 28, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$75.60Jul 28, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$7.56Jul 28, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$7.21Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$660.00Jul 28, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$113.80Jul 28, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?$20.15Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$8.16Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$310.00Jul 28, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$30.00Jul 28, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$45.00Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 127 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
127 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
58%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
$7.9K · 58% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $183.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 127 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.